Saturday, May 19, 2012

Mere Quirks or Superhuman Intelligence that Changed the Outcome of the War

The decision to write down the victorious war (2005-2009) in annals of history is a very insightful move. Ancestors kept many historical accounts of how repeated South Indian (mainly Tamil) invasions were repulsed. Heroic accounts of ancestors are detailed and descriptive. They help boost confidence in a military solution to similar problems. All such attempts had military, not political solutions. In addition to confidence boosting, they also point to potent military strategies to be followed.

However, there are matters that would evade any meticulous attempt to document history, especially in modern times. Due to political pressure, international relations and humanitarian considerations, certain vital information will be omitted from these documents. They may be quirks or results of superhuman intelligence, but their contribution to the final outcome of the war was immense. If these events didn’t take place, the war would not have been won.

Internal disputes of the LTTE

Disputes between TELO, LTTE and TULF in 1984 costed their friendship and a large number of lives of Tamil nationalists – political and military. LTTE and TELO blamed each other for the deaths of TULF politicians and started fighting each other. Tamil-Muslim disagreements starting from 1984 and culminating in 1990 also made matters better.

Internal disputes of Tamil Tigers spilled over a number of times most significantly after 2004 following the defection of their eastern commander. Wide spread killings took place. Casualties were both military and political. Joseph Pararajasingham, a well known LTTE sympathiser and TNA MP was trying to reconcile the LTTE and TMVP. He was killed by the dispute itself which he tried to resolve. His elimination saved heaps of worry in defence matters. Until then, the sudden demise of pro-LTTE politicians was unheard of. This new trend was immensely beneficial to Lanka. This dispute between two Tiger factions extended to the killing of many more TNA and connected MPs including Raviraj, Srinivasan and Maheswaran. In addition, pro-LTTE Sivaram also fell prey to LTTE internal disputes. His absence was a blessing as LTTE lost its most effective propagandist and geopolitical expert. They were the strongest stalwarts of LTTE-Tamil civilian unity. Their timely demise did wonders in the war.
A countless number of LTTE middle level commanders mysteriously died. LTTE blamed the mythical DPU for these.

The aim of documenting these events is not to find explanations. Explanations are not needed. What is needed is an understanding of how these events shaped the outcome of the war. These outcomes must be achieved in future military necessities one way or the other. Documenting these events certainly sheds light on what the outcomes needed to achieve the end objective.

Causal events
There were events that peculiarly fitted in very well into sending a strong signal to the LTTE to stop attacking civilians. For instance Tamil terrorists bombed the army commander Sarath Fonseka on 25 April, 2006. Within hours SLAF bombers were in action after a break of 5 years since 2001. Was it a mere quirk these jets targeted Tigers immediately after the LTTE’s act of terror? Or was it a clever retaliatory move? It doesn’t matter. What matters is the outcome. As far as the LTTE was concerned, what their thick brains would grasp is an unexplained causal connection which creates deterrence against further attacks. If they do, they will live to pay the price.

Strange events took place following LTTE attacks on civilians in the south. In order to put the blame on security forces, LTTE mirrored these attacks in Vanni targeting Tamil civilians. What matters is not an explanation but the outcome of this unexpected activity. Vanni population for the first time experience terror – what the south was experiencing. This created a mass hysteria and suspicion of the LTTE leading to mass defection. Vanni people forced the LTTE not to endanger their lives by carrying out terrorist attacks in any part of the island.

Similar events took place after many large scale terrorist attacks. For instance after LTTE killed 103 Muslims in Kathankudy in 1990, replicated these killings in a Tamil village killing over 200 Tamil civilians. Having done so, LTTE put the blame on security forces and Muslims. However, as a result of these violent acts, even the LTTE was fearful of carrying out further attacks on civilians.

War starting in Vadukodai and ending in Mulaitivu creates a national security threat

Not everything went well for the nation though. There is a clear difference in those who instigated, commandeered and agitated for the war and those who actually suffered. The war was envisioned, instigated and engineered by high caste Tamils from the Jaffna peninsular. However, Jaffna experienced war only for a very short time from 1983 to 1987 and 1990 to 1995. All in all, only 9 years out of 33 years (just 27%) did the Jaffna crowd suffered from direct war.
Casualties wise their suffering was even less.

However, low caste Tamils from Vanni and the east faced the brunt of war. War reached its climax in Vanni and ended in Mulaitivu. Most Tamils who died were unaware of what they were fighting for. Poverty, cohesion, threats and violence forced them to fight and die.

This disparity has created a lasting threat to the security of the nation. Since those who envisioned and engineered the war didn’t suffer as much as other Tamils suffered, the former group still insists on war, confrontation and Tamil Elam. They certainly didn’t learn the lesson as they were relatively unaffected.

That’s not all; this group gobbles all the benefits of peace leaving nothing to low caste Tamils. As a result low caste Tamils continue to live under these high caste Tamils in relative poverty and a relative lower social class. This creates the same conditions that led them to take up weapons!
In summary, the disparity between those who engineered the war and those who suffered has retained the conditions that caused the war.

A future confrontation must take into account this disparity and resolve it. Those who envision and engineer the war must be made to suffer most. Until they learn this lesson, they will continue to agitate for Tamil Elam (the root cause of war).

Indian interference

Indian interference saved the LTTE in the late 1970s when its leaders escaped to south India; in early 1983 when army assaults put their lives in danger and in 1986 and 1987 when the Indian government physically bailed out LTTE leaders. Despite the Gandhi killing, India continued to support the LTTE and did everything it could to disrupt Sri Lanka. At the restart of the war India threatened Lanka to buy all weapons only from India and not to approach Pakistan or China. This threat was disregarded. India also warned against deploying effective Chinese radars in the north by the navy. Once again it was disregarded. Indian agents bombing the convoy of the Pakistani High Commissioner didn’t derail cooperation with Pakistan. MK Narayanan’s only visit to Lanka was dominated by mix ups including his motorcade. He had to be dispatched in a taxi! Although it was a mix up, he didn’t take any further chances with his life by his unwelcomed visits.

India insisted on a political solution and to resume talks with Tigers. Due to disagreements within parliament, nothing happened in the front of political solutions. Had the political process commenced, LTTE would have found a vital breathing space and a lifeline. Political solutions stopped the war in 1985, 1987, 1989-90, 1994-95, 2000 and 2003-05. LTTE was destined to face the longest nonstop phase of war from 2006 to 2009. It didn’t have the luxury of a ceasefire to regroup, rearm or introduce new weapons to its arsenal.

Another Indian attempt was to interfere in elections through its pawns. India was sufficiently convinced its favourite dove of peace would win the election against the hawk from the other camp in 2005. However, Nirupama Rao miscalculated.

South Indian politicians freely visited LTTE bunkers. It is not possible India didn’t know their whereabouts! India knew their whereabouts very well but opted not to take any action. Demerging the north and the east was another matter that disrupted the Indian plan and angered the LTTE. It was no accident. It was a clever move. It convinced the LTTE that the 13 amendment would not even come close to the Tamil homeland demand. A breakaway cadre becoming the Chief Minister was far too much for both India and the LTTE.


Certain vital events that shaped the war are not subject to detailed discussion or documentation. However, it was these events that determined the outcome of the war. If not for these, the war would have ended in stalemate as in Vietnam or Afghanistan. What matters is not to find explanations but to appreciate the outcome and working towards achieving similar outcomes in future. Although the war was won, the demand for Tamil Elam is not over. It resurfaces from the same place it was born. War strategies and concentration failed to punish those who envisioned and engineered the war. It only punished the cannon fodder. Lanka seems to have given up on security measures after winning the war. Now it is fast becoming the destination of 1 million dollar drug consignments from Tamil Nadu; a playground of NGOs; a safe haven for Tamil nationalists; a remote controlled toy of India; a paradise for all anti-national elements and other vile elements. Keeping these vile elements on their toes, terrorised, is a dire need to save the peace. It needs no superhuman intelligence to understand the need to nip these in the bud using whatever means that work and less costly.  Otherwise it will be the same story again and again.


kevin said...

Glad that we are all enjoying the peace for the last 3 years since the terrorists were eliminated.GOSL must impose it rightful will in those area with presence of forces to quell any attempts by diaspora to fight again for a separate state while living in comfort overseas.Must stay put with the camps until the old generation of separatist supporters give up on their interest in SL.Young Tamil expatriates are not bothered about the affairs in the island and that's a good sign.

kevin said...

Glad that we are all enjoying the peace for the last 3 years since the terrorists were eliminated.GOSL must impose it rightful will in those area with presence of forces to quell any attempts by diaspora to fight again for a separate state while living in comfort overseas.Must stay put with the camps until the old generation of separatist supporters give up on their interest in SL.Young Tamil expatriates are not bothered about the affairs in the island and that's a good sign.

Moshe Dyan said...

tamil terrorism rises again!

"40-year-old Sri Lanka constitution burnt at cremation ground of Parvathi Amma

[TamilNet, Wednesday, 23 May 2012, 02:05 GMT]

The 1972 republican constitution of Sri Lanka, which for the first time constitutionalised the unitary Sinhala-Buddhist State and brought in the name ‘Sri Lanka’, against the wishes of the nation of Eezham Tamils in the island, has been burnt on its 40th anniversary on Tuesday, 22 May 2012, at the spot where the LTTE leader Pirapharan's mother was cremated but desecrated by the occupying Sinhala forces last year.

A group of more than 40 young Tamil activists, braving the hounding eyes of the occupying Sinhala military, burnt the SL Constitution at the Oo'ra'ni crematorium in Valveddiththu'rai in Jaffna on Tuesday afternoon."

Thusitha said...

Also SF is out after 3 years. Wasn't it a foolish thing to put him in prison in the first place. Now he would be really pissed off of what happened. Not sure what kind out damage he would do to SL in pursuit of revenge.

Sam Perera said...

No More Diplomatic Appointments - Tamara Kunanayakam

Is this how we treat our most talented and dedicated diplomats?

Moshe Dyan said...

as tamara says, we are going hell for leather to make USA happy.

1. USA wants tamara out - we take her out

2. USA wants us to talk to TNA, so we do.

3. USA wants SF out, we put him out.

Moshe Dyan said...

on the other hand, i don't know what else GOSL can do. we cannot get into bad books of USA.

but should that mean selling our sovereignty? no.

Moshe Dyan said...

tamil terrorists have again started their international dirty tactics.

"The number of Sri Lankans seeking asylum in Australia by boat in recent years peaked at

2009 - 736
2010, 536
2011- 211
2012 so far - 586

why don't we do the boat strategy???

the good side is 2,000+ tamil men have left SL. when they get PR, they bring their wives and children too. that is about 8,000 ungrateful terrorists leaving SL!!

leave MORE!

Moshe Dyan said...

Maoists take cue from Tamil Tigers

The Maoists are now using their women cadres to 'trap' security forces in Chhattisgarh’s Bastar region — a strategy earlier employed by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam in Sri Lanka.

Citing several instances encountered by security personnel recently, a senior officer said the latest strategy adopted by the Reds was aimed at 'weakening' the forces psychologically.

The same tactics were employed by the LTTE against the Sri Lankan forces during insurgency. The police officer, requesting anonymity, narrated how a contingent of security personnel from the CRPF and district force of Chhattisgarh police had walked into the trap of the rebels at Risgaon in Kanker district when they ventured into the nearby forest after hearing cries of women.

The troopers were soon greeted by intense firing by the Naxals, hiding in the jungle, leading to an encounter. Fortunately, the personnel somehow managed to escape unhurt.

In another incident, two months ago security forces surrounded a Naxal hideout in Narayanpur district. But, the rebels then pushed the unarmed women cadres to the front, leaving the jawans in an 'ethical' dilemma as to whether to open fire on them. Amid the confusion, the Maoists, including the women cadres, managed to flee.

Thusitha said...

Moshe Dyan said...
as tamara says, we are going hell for leather to make USA happy.

1. USA wants tamara out - we take her out

2. USA wants us to talk to TNA, so we do.

3. USA wants SF out, we put him out.

As long as the government is doing this because they are forced by U.S. and not for political reasons. Some times it is better to take small losses than huge losses. I am sure MR/GR right now see no better options.

Moshe Dyan said...


yes. that's how things are unfortunately.

lose battles but win the war.

only catch is if USA goes back on its word, then we are in trouble. but nothing has been irrecoverably lost so far.

USA plans to deploy most of its aircraft carriers around china. we should not get into these war games.

our enemies are tamil nationalists. we should get any help from anywhere to defeat them.

Moshe Dyan said...

if you ignore the jokes, this has some merit.

"After proving its capacity for genocide, the Sinhala military has now ‘graduated’ to get recognized as a potential major mercenary for the criminalised international system by the so-called international community as well as by India and China.

The British military strategy during the Second World War in protecting its Raj in India from the Japanese was heavily depending on Singapore, Burma and Ceylon.

After the fall of Singapore and Burma to the Japanese, Ceylon became the headquarters of the Southeast Asia Command of Mountbatten, who was directing the war from Kandy and Trincomalee. The war between 1942 and 1945 was fought from Ceylon mainly to open the Burma Road to China.

If the Chinese have replaced the Japanese today, once again Singapore, Sri Lanka and Burma are important to the successors of the British empire in the region – India and the USA."

from tamilnet.

Sam Perera said...


Tamilnet has gone real bananas now.

Thusitha said...

If this is happening in SL, this is sheer madness. If any Sinhalese Buddhists, or Buddhist monks attempt to inflame any religious divide between the Sinhales and the Muslims, they should be treated in the same way we treated LTTE. Right now this is not a fight we want, with all the war crime charges hanging over our heads.

After looking at the Sri Lankan news for some time, it is clear that there are attempts to inflame issues among Buddhist and Muslims. I am sure there would be a large group of people who want to see this happen. GR must some preventive actions before this happen. We cannot have any communal fighting between the two groups.

Is Sri Lanka heading towards another July '83?

By Latheef Farook
Is Sri Lanka heading towards another July 1983 type pogrom? This is the growing fear in view of the repeated threats on mosques and madrasas provoking Muslims. In the midst of this turbulence, the Criminal Investigation Department's call for a list of mosques and madrasas - no information on worshipping centers of other religions was sought -- has sent shockwaves among beleaguered Muslims.

Moshe Dyan said...


agree. they are in the same league as the LTTE.

BUT "the Criminal Investigation Department's call for a list of mosques and madrasas" is a good thing.

this MUST be regulated as we wrote to MoD and GR asking them to do this.

Register All Sacred Sites and Bring Laws to Prevent Building Other Religious Places of Worship Therein

Moshe Dyan said...

this is worthy of a new article!!

statelss football world cup!!

all participants are STATELESS (kallathoni)

"Eezham Tamil football players take part in Viva World Cup for first time
[TamilNet, Friday, 15 June 2012, 21:13 GMT]
Competing with other nations without states, “Tamil Eelam Football Association”, an Eezham Tamil diaspora football club participated in VIVA 2012 World Cup for the first time this year. Making it’s debut on 6th June, TEFA, a football team comprising of players from across the world, participated in the tournament at Erbil, Kurdistan, scoring the first victory for Tamil Eelam in football on Saturday in a match against Raetia. The newly assembled football team of young Eezham Tamils won one match out of four, rank seventh in the tournament. The tournament was won by Iraqi Kurdistan, with Northern Cyprus as runners up and Zanzibar in the third position."