Saturday, May 19, 2012

Mere Quirks or Superhuman Intelligence that Changed the Outcome of the War

The decision to write down the victorious war (2005-2009) in annals of history is a very insightful move. Ancestors kept many historical accounts of how repeated South Indian (mainly Tamil) invasions were repulsed. Heroic accounts of ancestors are detailed and descriptive. They help boost confidence in a military solution to similar problems. All such attempts had military, not political solutions. In addition to confidence boosting, they also point to potent military strategies to be followed.

However, there are matters that would evade any meticulous attempt to document history, especially in modern times. Due to political pressure, international relations and humanitarian considerations, certain vital information will be omitted from these documents. They may be quirks or results of superhuman intelligence, but their contribution to the final outcome of the war was immense. If these events didn’t take place, the war would not have been won.

Internal disputes of the LTTE

Disputes between TELO, LTTE and TULF in 1984 costed their friendship and a large number of lives of Tamil nationalists – political and military. LTTE and TELO blamed each other for the deaths of TULF politicians and started fighting each other. Tamil-Muslim disagreements starting from 1984 and culminating in 1990 also made matters better.

Internal disputes of Tamil Tigers spilled over a number of times most significantly after 2004 following the defection of their eastern commander. Wide spread killings took place. Casualties were both military and political. Joseph Pararajasingham, a well known LTTE sympathiser and TNA MP was trying to reconcile the LTTE and TMVP. He was killed by the dispute itself which he tried to resolve. His elimination saved heaps of worry in defence matters. Until then, the sudden demise of pro-LTTE politicians was unheard of. This new trend was immensely beneficial to Lanka. This dispute between two Tiger factions extended to the killing of many more TNA and connected MPs including Raviraj, Srinivasan and Maheswaran. In addition, pro-LTTE Sivaram also fell prey to LTTE internal disputes. His absence was a blessing as LTTE lost its most effective propagandist and geopolitical expert. They were the strongest stalwarts of LTTE-Tamil civilian unity. Their timely demise did wonders in the war.
A countless number of LTTE middle level commanders mysteriously died. LTTE blamed the mythical DPU for these.

The aim of documenting these events is not to find explanations. Explanations are not needed. What is needed is an understanding of how these events shaped the outcome of the war. These outcomes must be achieved in future military necessities one way or the other. Documenting these events certainly sheds light on what the outcomes needed to achieve the end objective.

Causal events
There were events that peculiarly fitted in very well into sending a strong signal to the LTTE to stop attacking civilians. For instance Tamil terrorists bombed the army commander Sarath Fonseka on 25 April, 2006. Within hours SLAF bombers were in action after a break of 5 years since 2001. Was it a mere quirk these jets targeted Tigers immediately after the LTTE’s act of terror? Or was it a clever retaliatory move? It doesn’t matter. What matters is the outcome. As far as the LTTE was concerned, what their thick brains would grasp is an unexplained causal connection which creates deterrence against further attacks. If they do, they will live to pay the price.

Strange events took place following LTTE attacks on civilians in the south. In order to put the blame on security forces, LTTE mirrored these attacks in Vanni targeting Tamil civilians. What matters is not an explanation but the outcome of this unexpected activity. Vanni population for the first time experience terror – what the south was experiencing. This created a mass hysteria and suspicion of the LTTE leading to mass defection. Vanni people forced the LTTE not to endanger their lives by carrying out terrorist attacks in any part of the island.

Similar events took place after many large scale terrorist attacks. For instance after LTTE killed 103 Muslims in Kathankudy in 1990, replicated these killings in a Tamil village killing over 200 Tamil civilians. Having done so, LTTE put the blame on security forces and Muslims. However, as a result of these violent acts, even the LTTE was fearful of carrying out further attacks on civilians.

War starting in Vadukodai and ending in Mulaitivu creates a national security threat

Not everything went well for the nation though. There is a clear difference in those who instigated, commandeered and agitated for the war and those who actually suffered. The war was envisioned, instigated and engineered by high caste Tamils from the Jaffna peninsular. However, Jaffna experienced war only for a very short time from 1983 to 1987 and 1990 to 1995. All in all, only 9 years out of 33 years (just 27%) did the Jaffna crowd suffered from direct war.
Casualties wise their suffering was even less.

However, low caste Tamils from Vanni and the east faced the brunt of war. War reached its climax in Vanni and ended in Mulaitivu. Most Tamils who died were unaware of what they were fighting for. Poverty, cohesion, threats and violence forced them to fight and die.

This disparity has created a lasting threat to the security of the nation. Since those who envisioned and engineered the war didn’t suffer as much as other Tamils suffered, the former group still insists on war, confrontation and Tamil Elam. They certainly didn’t learn the lesson as they were relatively unaffected.

That’s not all; this group gobbles all the benefits of peace leaving nothing to low caste Tamils. As a result low caste Tamils continue to live under these high caste Tamils in relative poverty and a relative lower social class. This creates the same conditions that led them to take up weapons!
In summary, the disparity between those who engineered the war and those who suffered has retained the conditions that caused the war.

A future confrontation must take into account this disparity and resolve it. Those who envision and engineer the war must be made to suffer most. Until they learn this lesson, they will continue to agitate for Tamil Elam (the root cause of war).

Indian interference

Indian interference saved the LTTE in the late 1970s when its leaders escaped to south India; in early 1983 when army assaults put their lives in danger and in 1986 and 1987 when the Indian government physically bailed out LTTE leaders. Despite the Gandhi killing, India continued to support the LTTE and did everything it could to disrupt Sri Lanka. At the restart of the war India threatened Lanka to buy all weapons only from India and not to approach Pakistan or China. This threat was disregarded. India also warned against deploying effective Chinese radars in the north by the navy. Once again it was disregarded. Indian agents bombing the convoy of the Pakistani High Commissioner didn’t derail cooperation with Pakistan. MK Narayanan’s only visit to Lanka was dominated by mix ups including his motorcade. He had to be dispatched in a taxi! Although it was a mix up, he didn’t take any further chances with his life by his unwelcomed visits.

India insisted on a political solution and to resume talks with Tigers. Due to disagreements within parliament, nothing happened in the front of political solutions. Had the political process commenced, LTTE would have found a vital breathing space and a lifeline. Political solutions stopped the war in 1985, 1987, 1989-90, 1994-95, 2000 and 2003-05. LTTE was destined to face the longest nonstop phase of war from 2006 to 2009. It didn’t have the luxury of a ceasefire to regroup, rearm or introduce new weapons to its arsenal.

Another Indian attempt was to interfere in elections through its pawns. India was sufficiently convinced its favourite dove of peace would win the election against the hawk from the other camp in 2005. However, Nirupama Rao miscalculated.

South Indian politicians freely visited LTTE bunkers. It is not possible India didn’t know their whereabouts! India knew their whereabouts very well but opted not to take any action. Demerging the north and the east was another matter that disrupted the Indian plan and angered the LTTE. It was no accident. It was a clever move. It convinced the LTTE that the 13 amendment would not even come close to the Tamil homeland demand. A breakaway cadre becoming the Chief Minister was far too much for both India and the LTTE.


Certain vital events that shaped the war are not subject to detailed discussion or documentation. However, it was these events that determined the outcome of the war. If not for these, the war would have ended in stalemate as in Vietnam or Afghanistan. What matters is not to find explanations but to appreciate the outcome and working towards achieving similar outcomes in future. Although the war was won, the demand for Tamil Elam is not over. It resurfaces from the same place it was born. War strategies and concentration failed to punish those who envisioned and engineered the war. It only punished the cannon fodder. Lanka seems to have given up on security measures after winning the war. Now it is fast becoming the destination of 1 million dollar drug consignments from Tamil Nadu; a playground of NGOs; a safe haven for Tamil nationalists; a remote controlled toy of India; a paradise for all anti-national elements and other vile elements. Keeping these vile elements on their toes, terrorised, is a dire need to save the peace. It needs no superhuman intelligence to understand the need to nip these in the bud using whatever means that work and less costly.  Otherwise it will be the same story again and again.

Friday, May 11, 2012

Afghan Coalition Casualties Racing Past 3,000 as USG Desperate to Contain Total War on Terror Battle Casualties to 10,000

Coalition troop casualties in Afghanistan surpasses 3,000 and heading to over 5,000 by the target date of exit in December 2014 at the current rate. With a total casualty figure of 4,800 plus in Iraq, the US Government is desperately trying to contain the total battle casualties of war on terror to less than the psychologically important figure of 10,000. A year after 2014 will certainly push the number beyond 10,000. That is why the exit date has been set to December 2014.

However, these numbers only tell part of the story.

Total western casualties in the battle front, suicides mainly due to PTSD and due to attacks in western cities since 2001 is now reaching 15,000. This includes 9/11, 3/11, 7/7 and other incidents as well. In other words the total casualty figure of coalition countries is set to surpass the total Soviet casualties of their Afghan mission.

What does this mean to world peace and stability?

Afghan terror groups have now beaten both the Russian and US camps comprehensively. Both Russian and US camps opted to run away from defeat leaving room for radical Islam to launch attacks throughout the world. After the Soviets left Afghanistan, it fell into a dark era of extremism and violence until violence spilt to New York. What will happen is much worse. Drones will be deployed in larger numbers after 2014 but given their inaccuracy, high ‘collateral damage’, inability to control ideological shifts and reform public opinion make drones less effective in the long run.

The Soviet Union, which was considered the most powerful nation on earth collapsed after the Afghan war defeat. A similar fate awaits NATO. It is better for NATO partners to divorce from it to protect their own individual interests from a resurgent and victorious Taliban. Some nations will even have secret pacts with the Taliban to protect their interests after December 2014. With both USA and EU in deep debt, much like the Soviet Union in the late 1980s, their woes are only beginning. Instability created in the Middle East and North Africa has created breeding grounds for the Taliban and other Islamic terrorist groups. All is set for a major showdown after December 2014.

The reason for the US and coalition defeat in Afghanistan is their hypocrisy. As a direct result of hypocrisy, there is no coordinated effort to fight terrorism. When one part of the world fights terrorism, the other criticises it. One nation’s terrorists are another nation’s freedom fighters. This has opened exciting new avenues for terrorists. If any terror group is capable of operating internationally, across the hypocrisy divide, their survival is guaranteed.

If the US government naively thinks the war will end in December 2014, it is in for a very nasty surprise. There was no war in 2000 but that wasn’t peace. Far from it. Emboldened by their victory Afghan terror groups will again and again attack western interests. The west will be faced with difficult options – go back to Afghanistan and lose again or put up with the global increase in Islamic terrorism.

Biggest financier of Wahabism and terrorism is Saudi Arabia. It is by no accident Idi Amin and the family of Osama ended up in Saudi Arabia. Being the largest exporter of oil, Saudi Arabia has an undying reserve of funds for Islamic terror groups around the world. Unless the Saudi Arabian dictatorship is brought down and its oil reserves are directly shared between world superpowers – USA, Russia and China, Islamic terrorists will prosper. Petro dollar, limited relatively liberal Emirates and other petty benefits are far less significant compared to the benefits it brings by dismantling the Saudi Arabian dictatorship. Once oil revenue and Islam are separated the world will be at peace from most terror and counter terror activities. It will also ease the rapid uncontrolled growth of Islam throughout the world threatening other religions, taking over their places of worship and introducing controversial practices particularly relating to women and children.

Eventually not just the westerners but also all humanity is going to suffer from terrorism. It is essential all nations in the world, at least civilised nations, must come together to help each other fight their terrorists. Selective condemnation of nations in their endeavours to defeat terrorism must stop forthwith. Interpol should be given more powers and assisted in hunting down terrorists no matter where they are. Money collection and moral support for terror groups and their front organisations must be totally stopped.

Unless these actions are taken, December 2014 will spell more disaster than any good. With trillions of dollars wasted, western military and civilian casualties set to run past 15,000 and a humiliating defeat on the horizon, options are very limited.