Saturday, January 22, 2011

What Happened to Sudan Will Happen to Sri Lanka Unless the Mono-Ethnic Nature of the North is Changed

South Sudanese have decided to separate. The referendum returned an overwhelming support for mostly Christian and tribal controlled South Sudan to separate from the Islamic north. Tamil Tigers have been invited to participate in the celebrations. Officials of the Transitional Government of Tamil Elam (TGTE) will be attending the celebration of the forming of the nation of South Sudan. Strategically important Red Sea area has seen many separations including Eritrea, Somaliland and Now South Sudan. Although away from the Red Sea, massive oil resources, close proximity to Egypt (the most powerful African nation) and a vast non-Arabic population in an otherwise Arabic region are some reasons for the success of the SPLA campaign. Notwithstanding old alliances, most superpowers (four out of five are Christian nations) threw their weight behind the larger Christian South against the Islamic North. Israel too supported the South Sudan movement for a very long time. Such enormous support left Sudan helpless and was forced to put up with the referendum.

Darfur the Bait, South Sudan the Catch
Darfur made a media sensation in the West for years. Millions of people, mostly Muslims continue to suffer horrendous crimes in Darfur. However, instead of any relief to them, world powers made use of their sufferings to help South Sudan gain independence. Impoverished Darfur continues to be ruled by the North with no change in the lives of suffering people. It makes sense to address the sufferings of Darfur people than to help South Sudanese achieve independence.  But it was not to be so, because of their religion.

This pattern can be seen around the world in newly formed nations. Australia, the US, UK and a host of western nations were all behind East Timor until it was formed. It was hailed as a victory of Christians against the world’s most populous Islamic nation. But what happened after Independence? Australia started exploiting East Timor’s oil reserves without offering anything to the locals. Today East Timor is one of the poorest countries. Eritrea is another example of desertion after helping split from Ethiopia. Kosovo is yet another example. US backed the Kosovo militants until they gained Independence. Their horrendous crimes including selling organs of captives went unnoticed and unpunished. But now the West brings up these crimes to subjugate the newly formed nation of Kosovo. South Sudan cannot expect much after the honeymoon. People of Darfur will be worse off in future.

Tamil Tiger Connection    
The Tamil Tiger-South Sudan connection is a cleverly engineered plan. South Sudanese won their military campaign to force Sudan to consider separation but Tamil Tigers lost. However, South Sudan can be turned into a platform to create Tamil Elam. A few adjustments would be needed in the Tamil community to gain from the momentum created in Sudan. Puppeteers behind South Sudan want to see the creation of the next Christian nation in Asia after East Timor. Only 30% north-east Tamils in Sri Lanka are Christians although growing rapidly. Tamil political groups in the north-east are dominated by Hindus at the moment. They are unlikely to get any real support. On the other hand Hindustan will be worried if anything were to change in Tamil polity. However, under the leadership of Christian bishops both in Sri Lanka and abroad, Tamil Tigers are determined to change to please western Christian fundamentalists.

By being at the forefront of the South Sudanese celebrations and even in helping the new nation take root, Tamil Tigers will be seen as good puppets for separatism and darlings of the West. Tigers’ strong proven anti-Islamic tendency is also an asset to the West. The strong Israeli connection of South Sudan is another thing TGTE Tamils are after.

Tamil Tigers around the world buoyant by a series of favourable events including the massive show of force in London, the first and only invite to participate in a national event, a spate of assassinations of anti-separatist Tamils in the north recently and TNA’s gathering support in Sri Lanka are going to make the most of the situation. Forthcoming LG elections in the north and the east will be seen as an opportunity to strengthen grassroots level support for TNA at taxpayers’ expense. TNA which is devoid of any second or third tier at the moment will be building a very strong ground support base following the enormous victory expected at the forthcoming LG elections and at the subsequent Northern Provincial Council election. TNA won most votes and seats at the 2010 General Election and TNA backed Sarath Fonseka swept the north and the east at the 2010 Presidential Election despite serving as the Army Commander.

Development, peace, prosperity and all other good brought about by the government count for nothing in the north at an election/referendum. Few pundits who predicted the end of the TNA with the LTTE had to eat their own words after the two elections in 2010. They are in for a shock this time.

Nasty Implications for Sri Lanka   
It is only a matter of time since Sri Lanka will be forced to hold a referendum in the north and the east to assess the desirability of dividing the nation. Tamil Tigers are busy creating a conducive infrastructure for separation. The West is looking for another puppet nation in the region to keep China and India under check. If Tamil Elam is created it will be perpetual conflict not only over the land and sea borders but also to share waterways, natural resources, etc. Obviously a conflict between two nations will be far more gruesome than an internal conflict. The time to act is now. Things will happen at a faster pace from now onwards and before long Sri Lanka will be at crossroads. When pro-western political parties come to power, this process will be expedited.

What will happen if a referendum is held today in the north and the east for separation?

Jaffna, Vanni and Batticaloa districts will endorse separation while Trincomalee and Ampara districts will reject it. Overall the yes vote for separation will win easily.

As with the case of East Timor, Kosovo, Eritrea, Somaliland and South Sudan it is ethnic and religious isolation that determine the desire to separation in areas where race and religious centred politics dominate. It is this that needs fixing.

Trincomalee and Ampara districts didn’t end up in their present political state by accident. It was a very difficult process of changing the mono ethnic nature of these districts. Planned or unplanned, expected or unexpected this is what happened. This proven successful strategy must be followed in the north as well. Sinhalese and Muslims must be settled in the north

Due to the large outflow of people from the north, a vast area has been vacated. Areas surrounding SLDF bases should be converted to agricultural, fisheries and industrial supply sources for these bases. It can increase food production, reduce defence spend, provide security forces personnel with fresh food, provide employment, contribute to the national economy and achieve sustainable development by distributing the population. New villages with all facilities should be created in the north for the families of service personnel. The argument that they may not be willing to relocate there is absurd. At least they can use them as holiday houses or rent out to millions of visitors from the south.

Illegal immigrants from Tamil Nadu must be stopped. Every year tens of thousands of illegal immigrants come to Sri Lanka.

Apart from these moves strategic defence initiatives must be taken to deter separatists. Military presence of friendly nations in the north goes a long way in deterring separatist activity. Power of pro-separatist Christian clergy and the huge Evangelical movement need to be cut down. Foreign missionaries should be totally banned. NGO activities must be monitored. All NGOs discriminating people by race or religion must be banned. At the moment almost all NGOs help mostly Tamils almost totally disregarding others.

DS Senanayake is respected by most political parties with over 95% voters’ support. He didn’t become the father of the nation merely by giving birth to a nation. He did well to expect and manage the threats to the infant nation. He could see the Tamil separatist cancer affecting parts of the nation and took proactive steps to prevent it. However, his actions only prevented it in the east but failed in the north due to the north being closest to Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka’s inability to prevent illegal immigration from Tamil Nadu.

This country awaits a leader with foresight, not one who thinks he won the lottery when the war ended. Can the present leader convert and galvanize the military and political victories into a national victory? Only time will tell. But time is running out.

Monday, January 10, 2011



1)      As the US mission in Colombo rightly said about CBK, She has a propensity for making huge issues of matters and then dropping them,” that is exactly what she did.  Later she would not only be extra-curteous to Eric Soleheim, but also went onto try and make LTTE an equal partner in the P-TOMS Tsunami reconstruction program – that would have enabled the LTTE to have access to over $2billion funds that it was eargerly waiting to convert for military purposes (fortunately for then Wimal Weerawansa JVP’s challenge in SC, it never came to be!)

2)     Shows how callous the RW UNF GOSL of the day was about Sri Lanka’s National Security.   Shows how RW’s “peace at any cost” was at play – which later resulted in dire consequences when our Ranaviru’s sacrifced their lives by the multi-thousands when trying to recapture the areas that LTTE had militarily built up – thanks to RW’s CFA and his mindboggling obsession with “peace at any cost.”

3)     Shows the callousness in which Norway appears to have treated this serious infraction by the SLMM.  Shows why we cannot trust them and particularly Eric Soleheim (who was the unofficial CEO over the SLMM).   It is unbelievable that today MR GOSL is once again willing to receive Eric Soleheim in Sri Lanka as a duly honored, “foreign dignitary!”


Full Text Of The Cable  10/23/2003 14:07

SUBJECT: President demands removal of chief monitor,
but it is not clear how far she wants to push matter
Refs: - (A) SA/INS -Colombo telecon 10/23/03 (B) FBIS Reston Va DTG 231407Z Oct 03
- (C) Colombo 1826, and previous (U) Classified by Charge´ d´Affaires James F. Entwistle. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).

1. (C) SUMMARY: President Kumaratunga has requested that Norway remove the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) chief. In making this demand, the president complained that the SLMM had lost "objectivity." While the GoN reviews next steps, the SLMM is continuing its operations. The GSL is balking at removing the SLMM chief and we are not sure how far Kumaratunga wants to push the matter. END SUMMARY.

2. (SBU) PRESIDENT LASHES OUT: President Kumaratunga has requested that Norway remove Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) chief Tryggve Teleffsen. The president made this demand in a letter
that was sent to the Norwegian government. The full text of the letter was not made public, but some of its contents have been leaked to the press. In making her demand, the president was cited as having "serious doubts" about Teleffsen´s and his organization´s impartiality and objectivity. The president went on to assert that the continuation of the ceasefire "within acceptable levels of national security requires
effective, objective and impartial monitoring of the truce," but that Teleffsen´s conduct, when compared to his predecessor, had been "quite unsatisfactory." Teleffsen, a retired Norwegian major general, took over as chief monitor in March, replacing Trond Furuhovde, another former Norwegian military official.

3. (C) In her letter, the president also specifically complained that the SLMM had recently acted to prevent the navy from intercepting a reported Tiger arms resupply ship operating off the northeast coast (see Ref C). The president directly accused the SLMM of either deliberately trying to tip off the Tigers via a phone call so that their boat could escape, or acting in a highly negligent manner. Per Ref C, Mission was
told by the Defense Minister that the SLMM´s actions in this matter were inadvertent (see more below).

4. (C) GSL/NORWEGIAN RESPONSE:  The Sri Lankan government is balking at supporting the president´s demand. Locked in a tense cohabitation situation with the president and her party, unnamed members of the United National Party (UNP) governing coalition have been quoted in the press as warning the president that her efforts to remove Tellefsen are putting the peace process at risk.

5. (C) Mission´s understanding is that the Norwegian government is reviewing next steps, and has not yet responded to the president´s letter. Charge´ called Norwegian Ambassador Hans Brattskar early October 24. Brattskar would not comment on the phone, but invited Charge over to discuss the matter later in the day. Timo Ekdahl, the SLMM´s acting spokesperson and chief of operations, told polchief that the SLMM was waiting for the Norwegian government to decide what to do in response to the president´s demand. As far as the SLMM was concerned, he added, it was "business as usual," however, with no changes in personnel for the group or adjustment in its operations at this time.

6. (C) CONVERSATION WITH TELLEFSEN: At a recent function, the Ambassador briefly spoke to Tellefsen about the October 16 incident off the northeast coast. (The conversation took place before the demand for his ouster). Confirming what we were told by the Defense Minister (see Ref C), Tellefsen admitted that his office had made a mistake by contacting the Tigers and asking them about the report that one of their ships was operating off the northeast coast. There was no intention to tip off the Tigers, he underscored. That said, Tellefsen said the matter had been badly handled and that the SLMM duty officer had failed to brief him on the matter in time.

7. (C) COMMENT: We are not sure how far President Kumaratunga wants to push this matter. She has a propensity for making huge issues of matters and then dropping them. Given her track record, it is very possible that she is simply trying to score points with her political base, which is significantly more skeptical toward the peace process than the general public (and happens to be gathering today in Colombo for a big rally). If the president presses this matter, it will become
a real cohabitation donnybrook, however, with the president pitted against the prime minister over which of them has power over foreign policy. The president legally does, but the prime minister has effective day-to-day control and would be loath to give into her on this issue. At the same time, disruptions in the SLMM´s operations would be highly problematic for the ceasefire and the larger peace process, especially in light of the likely delivery of the LTTE counterproposals in a week or so. There is no doubt that it would be best for all concerned if the president backs down and soon. END COMMENT.

8. (U) Minimize considered. ENTWISTLE