Coalition troop casualties in Afghanistan surpasses 3,000 and heading to over 5,000 by the target date of exit in December 2014 at the current rate. With a total casualty figure of 4,800 plus in Iraq, the US Government is desperately trying to contain the total battle casualties of war on terror to less than the psychologically important figure of 10,000. A year after 2014 will certainly push the number beyond 10,000. That is why the exit date has been set to December 2014.
However, these numbers only tell part of the story.
Total western casualties in the battle front, suicides mainly due to PTSD and due to attacks in western cities since 2001 is now reaching 15,000. This includes 9/11, 3/11, 7/7 and other incidents as well. In other words the total casualty figure of coalition countries is set to surpass the total Soviet casualties of their Afghan mission.
What does this mean to world peace and stability?
Afghan terror groups have now beaten both the Russian and US camps comprehensively. Both Russian and US camps opted to run away from defeat leaving room for radical Islam to launch attacks throughout the world. After the Soviets left Afghanistan, it fell into a dark era of extremism and violence until violence spilt to New York. What will happen is much worse. Drones will be deployed in larger numbers after 2014 but given their inaccuracy, high ‘collateral damage’, inability to control ideological shifts and reform public opinion make drones less effective in the long run.
The Soviet Union, which was considered the most powerful nation on earth collapsed after the Afghan war defeat. A similar fate awaits NATO. It is better for NATO partners to divorce from it to protect their own individual interests from a resurgent and victorious Taliban. Some nations will even have secret pacts with the Taliban to protect their interests after December 2014. With both USA and EU in deep debt, much like the Soviet Union in the late 1980s, their woes are only beginning. Instability created in the Middle East and North Africa has created breeding grounds for the Taliban and other Islamic terrorist groups. All is set for a major showdown after December 2014.
The reason for the US and coalition defeat in Afghanistan is their hypocrisy. As a direct result of hypocrisy, there is no coordinated effort to fight terrorism. When one part of the world fights terrorism, the other criticises it. One nation’s terrorists are another nation’s freedom fighters. This has opened exciting new avenues for terrorists. If any terror group is capable of operating internationally, across the hypocrisy divide, their survival is guaranteed.
If the US government naively thinks the war will end in December 2014, it is in for a very nasty surprise. There was no war in 2000 but that wasn’t peace. Far from it. Emboldened by their victory Afghan terror groups will again and again attack western interests. The west will be faced with difficult options – go back to Afghanistan and lose again or put up with the global increase in Islamic terrorism.
Biggest financier of Wahabism and terrorism is Saudi Arabia. It is by no accident Idi Amin and the family of Osama ended up in Saudi Arabia. Being the largest exporter of oil, Saudi Arabia has an undying reserve of funds for Islamic terror groups around the world. Unless the Saudi Arabian dictatorship is brought down and its oil reserves are directly shared between world superpowers – USA, Russia and China, Islamic terrorists will prosper. Petro dollar, limited relatively liberal Emirates and other petty benefits are far less significant compared to the benefits it brings by dismantling the Saudi Arabian dictatorship. Once oil revenue and Islam are separated the world will be at peace from most terror and counter terror activities. It will also ease the rapid uncontrolled growth of Islam throughout the world threatening other religions, taking over their places of worship and introducing controversial practices particularly relating to women and children.
Eventually not just the westerners but also all humanity is going to suffer from terrorism. It is essential all nations in the world, at least civilised nations, must come together to help each other fight their terrorists. Selective condemnation of nations in their endeavours to defeat terrorism must stop forthwith. Interpol should be given more powers and assisted in hunting down terrorists no matter where they are. Money collection and moral support for terror groups and their front organisations must be totally stopped.
Unless these actions are taken, December 2014 will spell more disaster than any good. With trillions of dollars wasted, western military and civilian casualties set to run past 15,000 and a humiliating defeat on the horizon, options are very limited.